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Recorded on 11-09-2008

Thursday, September 18, 2008

Calculating the Choke Factor

As a long-time follower of the Tennessee Volunteers, I have grown accustomed to their ability to choke during the biggest of games. Outside of the 1998 National Championship (over Bobby Bowden's Seminoles) and the 1986 Sugar Bowl (when they opened up an extra-large can of whoop-ass on Jimmy Johnson's Miami Hurricanes), I have had my fair share of some serious chokage by the Volunteer football squad.

I am pretty sure that many other sports fans out there also have had their stomach-churning, bile-inducing moments of disappointment as well. Thus, with that can't-do spirit in mind, I decided to do a little math; that is, I have created an official Choke Factor Scale (CFS) so that all collegiate football fans may have an idea of what their team will probably do in the next big game.

The CFS goes between 1 and 10, with a 10's signifying that it would have been better if the team had completely forgotten the game day and time, and a 1's signifying, as the great philosopher Timone once said, hakuna matata (i.e., "ain't no worries for the rest of your days").

Here's how, in all my mathematical wizardry, I've decided to compute the CFS:

  1. Take the number of seats in your team's home stadium.
  2. Divide it by the calendar year of your team's last national championship.
  3. Take the difference between the two teams' present national rankings. If your team is ranked lower, multiply this difference and the number from #2. If your team is ranked higher, divide the number from #2 by this difference.
  4. Move the decimal two spots to the left.
  5. Add the number of years your team's present head football coach has been there.
  6. Subtract the Vegas point spread if your team is favored. Add it if your team is not.
  7. Divide by the number of conference championships your team has won since 1992 (I know that's a random date, but it's my theory!)
  8. And that there's your official CFS number! Revel in it.

So, for Tennessee this weekend against Florida, the numbers would run like this:

  1. 102,037
  2. 102,037 / 1998 = 51.07
  3. (Florida = 4; Tennessee = 32) 51.07 * 28 = 1429.95
  4. 14.3
  5. 14.3 + 16 (years) = 30.3
  6. 30.3 + 7 = 37.3
  7. 37.3 / 2 = 18.65

And, for Florida this weekend against Tennessee, the numbers would run like this:

  1. 92,000
  2. 92,000 / 2006 = 45.86
  3. 45.86 / 28 = 1.64
  4. 0.0164
  5. 0.0164 + 3 (years) = 3.0164
  6. 3.0164 - 7 = -3.98
  7. -3.98 / 6 = -0.67

Well, at least I know now not to watch this weekend. They're both already off my chart.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

I was right--wasn't even close!